I.

BOOK is a circumftance which, it is evident, may have no fort of connection with the ftate of industry in a particular country. It feems even to have no very neceffary connection with that of the world in general. As arts and commerce, indeed, gradually spread themselves over a greater and a greater part of the earth, the fearch for new mines, being extended over a wider furface, may have fomewhat a better chance for being fuccefsful, than when confined within narrower bounds. The difcovery of new mines, however, as the old ones come to be gradually exhaufted, is a matter of the greatest uncertainty, and fuch as no human skill or industry can enfure. All indications, it is acknowledged, are doubtful, and the actual discovery and fuccefsful working of a new mine can alone afcertain the reality of its value, or even of its existence. In this search there feem to be no certain limits either to the poffible fuccefs, or to the poffible difappointment of human induftry. In the course of a century or two, it is poffible that new mines may be discovered more fertile than any that have ever yet been known; and it is juft equally poffible that the moft fertile mine then known may be more barren than any that was wrought before the difcovery of the mines of America. Whether the one or the other of those two events may happen to take place, is of very little importance to the real wealth and profperity of the world, to the real value of the annual produce of the land and labour of mankind. Its nominal value, the quantity of gold and filver by which this annual produce could be expreffed or reprefented, would, no doubt, be very different; but its real value, the real quantity of labour which it could purchase or command, would be precisely the fame. A fhilling might in the one cafe reprefent no more labour than a penny does at prefent; and a penny in the other might represent as much as a fhilling does now. But in the one cafe he who had a fhilling in his pocket, would be no richer than he who has a penny at prefent; and in the other he who had a penny would

9

XI.

would be just as rich as he who has a fhilling now. The cheapnefs CHAP. and abundance of gold and filver plate, would be the fole advantage which the world could derive from the one event, and the dearnefs and scarcity of those trifling fuperfluities the only inconveniency it could fuffer from the other.

Conclufion of the Digreffion concerning the Variations in the Value of Silver.

THE greater part of the writers who have collected the money prices of things in antient times, feem to have confidered the low money price of corn, and of goods in general, or, in other words, the high value of gold and filver, as a proof, not only of the scarcity of thofe metals, but of the poverty and barbarifm of the country at the time when it took place. This notion is connected with the fyftem of political economy which reprefents national wealth as confifting in the abundance, and national poverty in the scarcity of gold and filver; a fyftem which I shall endeavour to explain and examine at great length in the fourth book of this enquiry. I fhall only observe at present, that the high value of the precious metals can be no proof of the poverty or barbarism of any particular country at the time when it took place. It is a proof only of the barrenness of the mines which happened at that time to fupply the commercial world. A poor country, as it cannot afford to buy more, fo it can as little afford to pay dearer for gold and filver than a rich one; and the value of those metals, therefore, is not likely to be higher in the former than in the latter. In China, a country much richer than any part of Europe, the value of the precious metals is much higher than in any part of Europe. As the wealth of Europe, indeed, has increased greatly fince the discovery of the mines of America, fo the valué

I.

BOOK of gold and filver has gradually diminished. This diminution of their value, however, has not been owing to the increase of the real wealth of Europe, of the annual produce of its land and labour, but to the accidental difcovery of more abundant mines than any that were known before. The increase of the quantity of gold and filver in Europe, and the increase of its manufactures and agriculture, are two events which, though they have happened nearly about the fame time, yet have arifen from very different causes, and have scarce any natural connection with one another. The one has arisen from a mere accident, in which neither prudence nor policy either had or could have any fhare: The other from the fall of the feudal fyftem, and from the establishment of a government which afforded to induftry, the only encouragement which it requires, fome tolerable fecurity that it shall enjoy the fruits of its own labour. Poland, where the feudal fyftem ftill continues to take place, is at this day as beggarly a country as it was before the difcovery of America. The money price of corn, however, has risen; the real value of the precious metals has fallen in Poland, in the fame manner as in other parts of Europe. Their quantity, therefore, must have increased there as in other places, and nearly in the fame proportion to the annual produce of its land and labour. This increase of the quantity of those metals, however, has not, it feems, increased that annual produce, has neither improved the manufactures and agriculture of the country, nor mended the circumftances of its inhabitants. Spain and Portugal, the countries which poffefs the mines, are, after Poland, perhaps, the two moft beggarly countries in Europe. The value of the precious metals, however, must be lower in Spain and Portugal than in any other part of Europe; as they come from those countries to all other parts of Europe, loaded, not only with a freight and an infurance, but with the expence of smuggling, their exportation being either prohibited, or fubjected to a duty. In

proportion

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proportion to the annual produce of the land and labour, there- CHAP. fore, their quantity must be greater in those countries than in any other part of Europe: Thofe countries, however, are poorer than the greater part of Europe. Though the feudal fyftem has been abolished in Spain and Portugal, it has not been fucceeded by a much better.

As the low value of gold and filver, therefore, is no proof of the wealth and flourishing state of the country where it takes place; foneither is their high value, or the low money price either of goods in general, or of corn in particular, any proof of its poverty and barbarifm.

BUT though the low money price either of goods in general, or of corn in particular, be no proof of the poverty or barbarism of the times, the low money price of fome particular forts of goods, fuch as cattle, poultry, game of all kinds, &c. in proportion to that of corn, is a moft decifive one. It clearly demonftrates, first, their great abundance in proportion to that of corn, and confequently the great extent of the land which they occupied in proportion to what was occupied by corn; and, fecondly, the low value of this land in proportion to that of corn land, and confequently the uncultivated and unimproved ftate of the far greater part of the lands of the country. It clearly demonftrates that the ftock and population of the country did not bear the fame proportion to the extent of its territory, which they commonly do in civilized countries, and that fociety was at that time, and in that country, but in its infancy. From the high or low money price either of goods in general, or of corn in particular, we can infer only that the mines which at that time happened to fupply the commercial world with gold and filver, were fertile or barren, not that the country was rich or poor. But from the high or low money price of fome forts

I.

BOOK forts of goods in proportion to that of others, we can infer with a degree of probability that approaches almoft to certainty, that it was rich or poor, that the greater part of its lands were improved or unimproved, and that it was either in a more or lefs barbarous ftate, or in a more or lefs civilized one.

ANY rife in the money price of goods which proceeded altogether from the degradation of the value of filver, would affect all forts of goods equally, and raise their price universally a third, or a fourth, or a fifth part higher, according as filver happened to lose a third, or a fourth, or a fifth part of its former value. But the rife in the price of provifions, which has been the fubject of fo much reafoning and converfation, does not affect all forts of provifions equally. Taking the course of the prefent century at an average, the price of corn, it is acknowledged, even by those who account for this rife by the degradation of the value of filver, has rifen much less than that of fome other forts of provifions. The rife in the price of thofe other forts of provifions, therefore, cannot be owing altogether to the degradation of the value of filver. Some other caufes must be taken into the account, and those which have been above affigned, will, perhaps, without' having recourse to the supposed degradation of the value of filver, fufficiently explain this rife in those particular forts of provisions of which the price has actually rifen in proportion to that of

corn.

As to the price of corn itself, it has, during the fixty-four first years of the present century, and before the late extraordinary course of bad seasons, been fomewhat lower than it was during the fixtyfour last years of the preceding century. This fact is attefted, not only by the accounts of Windfor market, but by the publick fiars of all the different counties of Scotland, and by the accounts

of