BOOK

I.

price for which it is poffible to bring it thither, than the price of Spanish filver. When all expences are computed, the whole quan tity of the one metal, it would feem, cannot, in the Spanish market, be difpofed of fo advantageoufly as the whole quantity of the other. The tax, indeed, of the King of Portugal upon the gold of the Brazils, is the fame with the ancient tax of the King of Spain upon the filver of Mexico and Peru; or one-fifth part of the ftandard metal. It may, therefore, be uncertain whether to the general market of Europe the whole mass of American gold comes at a price nearer to the lowest for which it is poffible to bring it thither, than the whole mafs of American filver,

THE price of diamonds and other precious ftones may, perhaps, be still nearer to the lowest price at which it is poffible to bring them. to market, than even the price of gold,

Though it is not very probable, that any part of a tax, which is not only impofed upon one of the most proper fubjects of taxation,. a mere luxury and fuperfluity, but which affords fo very important a revenue, as the tax upon filver, will ever be given up as long as. it is poffible to pay it; yet the fame impoffibility of paying it, which in 1736 made it neceffary to reduce it from one-fifth to onetenth, may in time make it neceffary to reduce it fill further; in the fame manner as it made it neceffary to reduce the tax upon gold to one-twentieth. That the filver mines of Spanish America, like all other mines, become gradually more expenfive in the working,. on account of the greater depths at which it is neceffary to carry on. the works, and of the greater expence of drawing out the water. and of supplying them with fresh air at those depths, is acknowledged by every body who has enquired into the ftate of these

mines.

9

THESA

XI.

THESE caufes, which are equivalent to a growing fcarcity of CHAP. filver (for a commodity may be faid to grow scarcer when it becomes more difficult and expenfive to collect a certain quantity of it) muft, in time, produce one or other of the three following events. The increase of the expence muft either, firft, be compenfated altogether by proportionable increase in the price of the metal; or, fecondly, it must be compenfated altogether by a proportionable diminution of the tax upon filver; or, thirdly, it must be compenfated partly by the one, and partly by the other of those two expedients. This third event is very poffible. As gold rofe in its price in proportion to filver, notwithstanding a great diminution of the tax upon gold; fo filver might rife in its price in proportion to labour and commodities, notwithstanding an equal diminution of the tax. upon filver.

SUCH fucceffive reductions of the tax, however, though they may not prevent altogether, muft certainly retard more or lefs, the rife of the value of filver in the European market. In confequence of such reductions, many mines may be wrought which could not be wrought before, because they could not afford to pay the old tax; and the quantity of filver annually brought to market must always be fomewhat greater, and, therefore, the value of any given quantity fomewhat lefs, than it otherwife would have been. confequence of the reduction in 1736, the value of filver in the European market, though it may not at this day be lower than before that reduction, is, probably, at least. ten per cent. lower than it would have been, had the Court of Spain continued to exact the old tax.

In

That, notwithstanding this reduction, the value of filver. has, during the course of the prefent century, begun to rife fomewhat in the European market, the facts and arguments which have been alledgedi

* M m 3

I.

BOOK alledged above, difpofe me to believe, or more properly to fufpect and conjecture; for the best opinion which I can can form upon this subject scarce, perhaps, deserves the name of belief. The rise, indeed, supposing there has been any, has hitherto been so very small, that after all that has been said, it may, perhaps, appear to many people uncertain, not only whether this event has actually taken place; but whether the contrary may not have taken place, or whether the value of filver may not still continue to fall in the European market.

Grounds of the Sufpicion that the value of Silver ftill continues to decrease.

HE increase of the wealth of Europe, and the popular notion

TH

that, as the quantity of the precious metals naturally increases with the increase of wealth, fo their value diminishes as their quantity increases, may, perhaps, difpofe many people to believe that their value ftill continues to fall in the European market; and the ftill gradually increasing price of many parts of the rude produce of land may confirm them ftill further in this opinion.

THAT that increase in the quantity of the precious metals, which arifes in any country from the increase of wealth, has no tendency to diminish their value, I have endeavoured to fhow already. Gold and filver naturally refort to a rich country, for the fame reafon that all forts of luxuries and curiofities refort to it; not because they are cheaper there than in poorer countries, but because they are dearer, or because a better price is given for them. It is the fuperiority of price which attracts them, and as soon as that superiority ceases, they neceffarily ceafe to go thither.

IF you except corn and fuch other vegetables as are raised altogether by human induftry, that all other forts of rude produce, cattle, poultry, game of all kinds, the useful foffils and minerals of

the

XI.

the earth, &c. naturally grow dearer as the society advances in wealth CHA P.
and improvement, I have endeavoured to fhow already. Though
fuch commodities, therefore, come to exchange for a greater quantity
of filver than before, it will not from thence follow that filver has
become really cheaper, or will purchase less labour than before, but
that fuch commodities have become really dearer, or will purchase
more labour than before. It is not their nominal price only, but
their real price which rises in the progrefs of improvement. The rife
of their nominal price is the effect, not of any degradation of the
value of filver, but of the rise in their real price.

Different Effects of the Progrefs of Improvement upon three different
Sorts of rude Produce.

THESE different forts of rude produce may be divided into
three claffes. The firft comprehends those which it is scarce
in the power of human induftry to multiply at all. The second,
those which it can multiply in proportion to the demand. The
third, those in which the efficacy of industry is either limited or
uncertain. In the progrefs of wealth and improvement, the real
price of the first may rise to any degree of extravagance, and seems not
to be limited by any certain boundary. That of the second, though
it
may
rife greatly, has, however, a certain boundary beyond which it
cannot well pass for any confiderable time together. That of the third,
though its natural tendency is to rife in the progress of improvement,
yet in the fame degree of improvement it may fometimes happen even
to fall, fometimes to continue the fame, and fometimes to rife more
or lefs, according as different accidents render the efforts of human
induftry, in multiplying this fort of rude produce, more or lefs fuc-
'cessful.

Firft

BOOK
I.

First Sort.

THE first fort of rude produce of which the price rises in the progrefs of improvement, is that which it is fcarce in the power of human industry to multiply at all. It confifts in those things which nature produces only in certain quantities, and which being of a very perishable nature, it is impoffible to accumulate together the produce of many different seasons. Such are the greater part of rare and fingular birds and fishes, many different forts of game, almost all wild-fowl, all birds of paffage in particular, as well as many other things. When wealth and the luxury which accompanies it increase, the demand for thefe is likely to increase with them, and no effort of human industry may be able to increase the fupply much beyond what it was before this increase of the demand. The quantity of fuch commodities, therefore, remaining the fame, or nearly the fame, while the competition to purchase them is continually increasing, their price may rife to any degree of extravagance, and feems not to be limited by any certain boundary. If woodcocks fhould become fo fashionable as to fell for twenty guineas a-piece, no effort of human industry could increase the number of those brought to market, much beyond what it is at prefent. The high price paid by the Romans, in the time of their greatest grandeur, for rare birds and fishes, may in this manner easily be accounted for. These prices were not the effects of the low value of filver in those times, but of the high value of fuch rarities and curiofities as human industry could not multiply at pleasure. The real value of filver was higher at Rome, for fome time before and after the fall of the republic, than it is through the greater part of Europe at prefent. Three feftertii, equal to about fixpence fterling, was the price which the republic paid for the modius or peck of the tithe wheat of Sicily. This price, however,

was